Don’t Trade Blind This Week — Here’s What’s Actually Moving the Market

A loaded week of economic events is ahead, and if you’re not paying attention, you might be reacting to volatility instead of preparing for it. From U.S. labor data to central bank updates and a possible shift in the Fed’s tone, these scheduled releases could reshape USD and CAD momentum heading into August. Here's what you need to know, broken down by day:

On Tuesday, July 29th, we kick things off with the JOLTS Job Openings report. This data offers a snapshot of hiring demand in the U.S. economy and is often one of the first signs of changes in the labor market. A drop in job openings could point to slowing business confidence, while a strong number suggests ongoing demand and economic resilience. It may not get as much hype as Non-Farm Payrolls, but the Fed watches this closely — and so should traders.

Wednesday, July 30th, is the most event-heavy day of the week, especially for USD traders. It starts with the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which gives a private-sector preview of job creation. While it doesn't always match the official NFP report, it often sets the tone early.

Next up is the Advance GDP q/q report — the first look at second-quarter growth in the U.S. A surprise here can move markets fast, especially if it points to either stronger or weaker-than-expected economic momentum.

Also on Wednesday, Canadian traders should watch the Bank of Canada (BOC) Monetary Policy Report, which outlines the central bank’s view on inflation, growth, and future rate policy.

But the spotlight will be on the FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate, and the FOMC Press Conference. This is where the Fed reveals its interest rate decision and outlook. Any change in tone or forward guidance even subtle can move the USD significantly. Whether the Fed stays hawkish or leans dovish, expect market volatility.

On Thursday, July 31st, we get the Employment Cost Index, a key wage inflation indicator. It tracks the cost of labor to businesses and is one of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauges. A higher-than-expected reading could revive talk of more tightening.

We also get the weekly Unemployment Claims — not always market-moving on its own, but an important gauge of short-term labor market shifts, especially if claims suddenly spike.

And on Friday, August 1st, we close out the week with two heavy hitters. First, the Non-Farm Employment Change, the U.S. government’s official jobs report, drops. This includes job creation numbers, wage growth, and the unemployment rate — and it almost always sparks volatility in the dollar and equity markets.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI also releases Friday, offering insight into business activity across the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 signals contraction. This data helps traders assess broader economic momentum.

With so much top-tier data in just a few days, this week is a big one for traders who follow fundamentals. The FOMC statement, GDP figures, and Non-Farm Payrolls all have the power to shift short-term sentiment and long-term outlook.

If you’re actively trading USD or CAD pairs, ignoring these releases could mean missing the why behind the price moves. Instead of reacting to candles, get ahead of them by understanding what’s driving the momentum.